Greenburgh, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

955
FXUS61 KOKX 261942
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
342 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves southeast tonight. A weak frontal system
then approaches late tonight, moving through on Sunday. High
pressure returns Monday into Tuesday. A cold front approaches
Wednesday and moves across the area Wednesday night into
Thursday. High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes Friday
into next Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Region remains on the NE periphery of strong southern ridging with a
shearing Mid Mississippi River valley short wave approaching tonight
and crossing on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure slides east of
the region tonight into Sunday, allowing a warm front to
gradually approach the area.

The ne flow allowed a pool of wildfire smoke to rotate and mix
down into the area today. This will continue into the afternoon
while gradually diluting this evening. Visibility will be reduced
to 4 to 6 mile in haze through the afternoon with a faint smell
of smoke as a result. EPA monitored PM AQI levels of 100 to 150
(unhealthy for sensitive groups to all groups) being observed
across much of the area this afternoon, which should gradually
improve this evening into tonight as smoke dilutes and winds
increase from the S. NYS/NJ has issued an air quality alert for
SE NY and NE thru midnight.

Otherwise, high and mid clouds will be on the increase this
evening, with increasing chance for showers across NY metro and
points west into tonight with good theta-e advection and lift
ahead of approaching elevated warm front and mid-level
shortwave. Deep layer moisture increases through the night with
soundings becoming quite tropical, although instability will be
minimal, mainly below mixed phases region, and mainly west of
the hudson R. Increasing chance for showers overnight, with
potential for some heavy downpours in the morning for NYC and
points N&W with localized 1"/hr rainfall rates, but better
forcing and instability appears to be west and north of the
region.

Instability gradually builds to marginal levels across western half
of the Tri-State in the aft/eve, particularly west of the Hudson,
limited by plenty of cloud cover. Deep layer shear appears marginal
as well, but could be enhanced by approaching warm front,
particularly at low-levels. Approaching shortwave energy should
be focus for scattered convection along/ahead of warm
front/surface trough approach. A localized flash flood threat
exists as well with any repetitive or backbuilding strong storms
that may develop/anchor along the N/S oriented warm
front/trough in response to moist 25-30kt W LLJ feeding in a 2
1/4" PWATS environment. Potential for 2"hr rainfall rates. More
stable conditions across eastern LI and SE CT should weaken
thunderstorms activity and coverage as it moves east, but
localized heavy downpours with 1"+/hr rates are possible. The
secondary threat is potential for isolated strong to severe
storms. Strong to damaging wind gusts would be main threat with
high PWAT environment and some mid-level dry air entrainment
potential, but marginal shear and instability are limited
factors for coverage and intensity.

Activity should dissipate in the evening as shortwave energy slides
east, warm front moves through, and surface instability wanes.
Otherwise near seasonable temps for tonight with increasing humidity
levels as return flow develops. Warm and muggy for Sunday, but temps
may remain below seasonable with clouds and shra/tsra activity. Very
warm and muggy for Sum Night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
* Heat and humidity builds on Monday. Heat Advisory in effect
  for the entire area for Mon and Tue.

Region remains on the NE periphery of strong southern ridging
Monday, with surface high extending from deep south into southern
Canada building into the region.

With 850 mb temps rising to 18-20c, plenty of sunshine and
light NW winds to start the day, temps should be able to quickly
rise into the lower to mid 90s for much of the area by early
afternoon, even to the coast. Combined with TDs in the lower
70s, heat indices in the mid to upper 90s expected for the
coast. Upper 90s to lower 100s heat indices likely for NYC
metro, LoHud, NE NJ, and SW CT, but potential for widespread
105F heat indices appears low and sparse at this time.

Muggy Monday Night, with low temps in the mid to upper 70s for
NYC/NJ metro, and lower to mid 70s elsewhere.

Weak shortwave/vorts move through the region Mon eve/night, but
fairly strong 700-850 mb capping appears to inhibit tstm
formation.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points:

*High heat and humidity continues on Tuesday and likely persist into
Wednesday. Heat indices look highest Tuesday (100 to around 105F)
with potentially upper 90s to around 100 on Wednesday.

*Chances for showers and thunderstorms increases a bit late
Wednesday and could persist into a portion of Thursday.

*High pressure builds towards the area to end the week and should
dominate the pattern the first half of next weekend bringing cooler
temperatures and low humidity levels.

Ridging will remain in control on Tuesday, but begins to weaken over
the northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday. An anomalously strong
upper trough digs southward out of southeast Canada Thursday and
should settle over the northeast and New England Friday into next
Saturday.

Heat headlines still appear likely for Tuesday and should continue
into Wednesday for a portion of the area. The core of the
heat shifts south of the area on Wednesday, but dew points should
remain fairly high in the upper 60s and lower 70s in the afternoon.
Otherwise, confidence continues to increase on much cooler
conditions Thursday and especially Friday into the first half of
next weekend. There is potential for below normal temperatures to
start the month of August.

Convection chances have diminished for Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase late Wednesday into
Wednesday night with the passage of the cold front. It is too early
to determine if any severe weather is possible given a high amount
of uncertainty with instability and timing. Models have also been
signaling a frontal wave passing to our south on Thursday, which
hold onto shower chances, highest near the coast, into a
portion of Thursday evening. Dry conditions should return Friday
into next weekend with high pressure building in from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure over the region moves offshore this evening and
into tonight. A warm front approaches from the west late
tonight, moving into the region Sunday morning, and possibly
becoming stationary across the region.

Generally VFR, with areas MVFR with visibilities reduced in
haze and smoke from wildfires into early this evening. MVFR
possible again late tonight into Sunday morning with a chance
of showers, generally 07Z to 14Z.

Winds SE to S 10 kt or less into this evening. Tonight winds
become light from the south, to light and variable. Winds
increase from the south 5 to 10 KT Sunday morning.


   ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of showers late tonight with MVFR may be off a couple of
hours.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday afternoon: MVFR into Sunday evening then VFR. Showers
and thunderstorms likely from the NYC terminals and north and
west, and a chance to the east.

Monday - Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR. A chance of showers and a slight chance of
thunderstorms with MVFR at night.

Thursday: VFR. A chance of showers with MVFR possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient thru Wednesday will lead to the
continuation of conditions below Small Craft Advisory levels.
Conditions should remain below Advisory levels next Thursday,
but there may be a slight increase in winds and seas due to the
passage of a cold front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Isolated instances of flash flood possible Sunday
afternoon/evening, mainly for NYC and points N&W, with any
training or backbuilding thunderstorm activity. Rainfall rates
of 2"/hr possible. A basin average 1/4 to 3/4" of rainfall is
likely across this area. with locally 2-3" possible, falling in
as little as 1 to 2 hrs.

There are currently no hydrologic concerns next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate rip current risk continues at ocean beaches into this
evening. The rip current risk remains low on Wednesday as seas and
swells subside in combination of a developing light S flow in the
afternoon. The rip current risk increases to moderate on Thursday
with increasing S flow to 10-15 kt and building S seas to 3-4 ft in
the afternoon.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     CTZ005>012.
NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
     Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Sunday night for
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
     Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...DS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...